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General NLG Chat => General Chat, Slot Shop **Tech Talk** Welcome wagon and other stuff. (Off-Topic Post Welcome) => Topic started by: jay on February 05, 2018, 10:07:33 AM
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I am not personally a sports bettor but I am curious how the sports book did with the Eagles Win.
I find the betting forms hard to read but I believe the Patriots were favored to win and it looks like the point spread to beat was 5.5 points (not sure how .5 of a point works ?)
So does this mean anyone betting on the Eagles won regardless of the score ??
I would also think as the underdog the payback ratio would be higher than 1:1
Here is what I found on the internet......
To the surprise of nobody, the Eagles will once again play the role of the underdog in this one. Ever since they lost MVP-caliber quarterback Carson Wentz to a torn ACL, they have been doubted in all corners. The Patriots are favored by 5.5 points, according to OddsShark.
Both teams finished the regular season very close in their records against the spread, with New England going 11-5 and Philly going 10-6. The bigger that spread is, the better chance the Eagles have to cover even if they don’t win outright. In recent Super Bowl history, the underdog in the point spread has gone a sparkling 12-4 in the last 16 years.
Money Line
At least as of now, the money line isn’t the most exciting bet in the world on its own. Both teams are sitting at -200. This is something that could shift as the game gets closer.
Over/Under
Early lines for the over/under are floating between 47.5 and 48.5 which is a pretty reasonable number, with OddsShark splitting the difference at 48. For those unaware, this is the total number of points scored in the game, regardless of who scores them. Vegas expects this game to be relatively high-scoring with Brady at quarterback and the Philadelphia offense looking dangerous even with Foles under center.
Yet again, both teams had similar records in the over/under department this year. The Patriots went 7-9 and the Eagles went 8-8. This number is placed really well as it’s easy to see the game going either way. In the past 10 seasons, the over number has hit in six Super Bowls.
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I am not personally a sports bettor but I am curious how the sports book did with the Eagles Win.
I find the betting forms hard to read but I believe the Patriots were favored to win and it looks like the point spread to beat was 5.5 points (not sure how .5 of a point works ?)
So does this mean anyone betting on the Eagles won regardless of the score ??
I would also think as the underdog the payback ratio would be higher than 1:1
The most basic sports bet is the "point spread" bet. When one team is believed to be superior to the other team, the sports book tries to make the teams even by "giving" points to the underdog. So, if one team is deemed to be one touchdown better than the other, the underdog gets +7 points. If you bet on the underdog, you add seven points to the final score.
To avoid ties, sports books frequently add a half point. If the game ends on the exact point spread, everyone gets their money back—and sports books don't make any money.
In the 2018 Super Bowl, Philadelphia was "given" 5.5 points, so the final score with the point spread was Philadelphia 46.5 to New England's 33. So yes, anyone betting on the Eagles won because Philadelphia "won outright."
If New England had come back at the end to tie it, and won in overtime on a field goal, Philadelphia bettors would still have won, because the final "point spread" score would have been Philadelphia 46.5 to New England's 44.
Sometimes sports books lose money because more people bet on one team. The point spread is supposed to balance the amount of wagering on both teams, but if far more people bet on New England, then the sports books probably won money.
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I would also think as the underdog the payback ratio would be higher than 1:1
Regarding the payback, all point spread bets are 11 to 10, so in theory the winning bettors win $100 on their $110 bet; the losing bettors lose all $100 of their bet; and the sports book keeps the extra $10.
If you bet on an underdog to win outright, you get better payback. For the Super Bowl, if you bet $100 on Philadelphia to win, you'd win $175 (plus get your original $100 bet returned).
The payback amounts vary by casino, so it sometimes helps to shop around for better odds.
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So in this case would you have not been better to bet the spread on NewEngland $100 and bet Philly to win outright for $100.
I would be neutral if Pats won. I would be up $175 under current win. What am I missing ?
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According to the news stories I saw some of the Vegas sports books lost money badly on the SuperBowl, while others made a slight win. The places that lost badly were the ones that offered a ton of side bets (proposition bets). The sports books that made a little money were those that got an outsized (huge) bet on the Patriots, a gambler's loss like that offset a lot of winning bets on the Eagles.
Here's one example, there are plenty of similar stories:
EAGLES’ EXCITING SUPER BOWL WIN HANDS HUGE LOSS TO LAS VEGAS BOOKIES
https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/461526ab-0a7c-11e8-a978-0a9aa1523ac0/Eagles-exciting-Super-Bowl-win-hands-huge-loss-to-Las-Vegas-bookies (https://www.covers.com/Editorial/Article/461526ab-0a7c-11e8-a978-0a9aa1523ac0/Eagles-exciting-Super-Bowl-win-hands-huge-loss-to-Las-Vegas-bookies)
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So in this case would you have not been better to bet the spread on NewEngland $100 and bet Philly to win outright for $100.
I would be neutral if Pats won. I would be up $175 under current win. What am I missing ?
If you bet $100 on the spread for Pats and $100 for Philly to win outright, you'd lose the $100 on the Pats and win $175 on Philly—and be up $75.
However, if Patriots win by 6 or more, because the point-spread wager is 11 to win 10, a $100 bet on Pats would win you $90.91 and you would lose the $100 "straight bet" wager on Philly—for a net loss of $9.09.
The worst-case scenario is if Patriots win by 5 or less: you'd lose both your point-spread bet on the Pats, and the $100 straight bet on Philly—a loss of $200.