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| Confidence Intervals for dummies |
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| don275:
makes no sense that they are allowed to never have to pay out,should be a set time or amount that it has to pay out by, to keep it honest, the machines should never be allowed to take in ten times the set jackpot with out paying out ,to me its just common sense,if the math dont add up their is a reason why ,they are stealing 80% to 90% and saying they pay back 90%, that is what i see , like the canadian lottery, they take 50% ,and sports betting proline they want to take 35% of the money bet.that is shown because it has to be on the odds, slots are hidden behind a chip ,that says it pays that percent over its life time,just my way of thinking ,and have played the slots to come up with it,you can go ten times ,you are lucky if you come out winning one of them,just like the banks giving 1,8% interest on your money and homes going up 8% to 10% a year,why put money in the bank ,when you can buy homes rent them out and get 5 or 6 times more on your cash a year, plus rent money,and mortgage payed in 20 years,just my way of thinking,when your ready to retire ,sell your homes and enjoy the rest of your life,let your money work for you, not the bank, i must be going crazy,with my slot machines,hahahahahah........slot fever, |
| rokgpsman:
They aren't rigged or forbidden from paying out the big jackpot, it's just a smaller chance of it happening than the lower winning spins so can sometimes take a while to happen. When you buy a MegaBucks lottery ticket for a drawing your chance is very small to win the top prize and often there is no winner in the drawing that week, out of millions of tickets sold. But eventually someone does win the big jackpot, its a random event that can be won in the first week or much later. You've seen the ping-pong balls pop out of the machine, that's a random selection. Some gambling jurisdictions have games based on "pulltabs". Those are what you are referring to. There are a definite number of winners in each cycle and each cycle has a known number of tabs/tickets. That is called Class II gaming and usually is found in Native American casinos but some states also allow pulltab games in bars, convenience stores, truck stops, etc. Vegas-style slot machines are in Class III, they are random and have no set cycle. You can win the top jackpot on a Class III machine, the spin it again and win the top award again. Or you can go months and months without winning it. |
| jay:
A progressive jackpot is actually a marketing tool. a %% of each coin dropped contributes to the progressive. So if the machine is programmed to pay out at the 92.5% that means a 7.5% house hold. They would allocate 0.0125 to the progressive, however the casino gets to write that off as marketing. Income less expenses = profit, and taxes are paid on profit. Expenses would be rent, depreciation, marketing, salarys, etc.... If the progressive doesn't pay out it can be moved to another casino or it can be turned over to the state. |
| FiveTimesHey:
--- Quote from: don275 on January 07, 2018, 11:39:31 AM ---those percents are based off 1 million spins paying back 95% , is that correct ,for you to come up with those percents, thx --- End quote --- My example was based on 1,000 spins. You can solve for any number of spins you want:Payback % +/- (VI/(square root of(# of spins)))(VI is determined based on your PAR sheet & the Confidence interval you want to set, see OP) If our machine has a 95% payback, the 98% confidence interval for 1,000 spins is as follows:.95 +/- (28.24/sqrt(1,000)).95 +/- (28.24/31.62).95 +/- .8931Over 1,000 spins, 1% of the time this imaginary machine will return less than 5.69% of what is run through the machine. Over 1,000 spins, 1% of the time the machine will return more than 184.31% of what is run through the machine. So basically you can get a sense for exactly how representative your sample size is by solving in reverse. |
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